Gardner’s good arm?

Yesterday, Dave Cameron at FanGraphs put out an intriguing piece on our boy Brett Gardner. Basically, since joining the Yankees, Gardner has had one of the best throwing arms in the majors. This is based on his ARM rating (arm runs), which is one of the fielding measurements included in one’s UZR rating (along with error runs and range runs). FanGraphs explicitly defines ARM rating in the following manner.

Outfielder’s get credit (plus or minus) depending on what the runners do on a hit or a fly ball out. A runner can stay put, advance, or get thrown out. A fielder will get credit not only if he throws out more than his share of runners, but also if he keeps more than his share of runners from advancing extra bases.

Now here’s what Cameron had to say about Gardner.

Gardner has racked up an incredible +8.4 ARM rating since showing up in the majors last year, and he’s done it in half a season’s worth of playing time. He has 83 “defensive games” as a major league outfielder, meaning that he’s had just over 1/2 of a season’s worth of balls hit to him to turn into outs. The four guys ahead of him are all at 200+ defensive games during this same time span.This is a ridiculous performance, honestly. Over a full season, Gardner’s +17 pace would easily be double that of the 2008 ARM leader (Pence). He’s been worth almost a win to the Yankees (in half a season!) just by chucking the ball back in from the outfield.

When I looked up Gardner on the Fans Scouting Report for 2008, he graded out fairly average across the board in strength, accuracy, and release. Based on the 29 ballots filled out by Yankee fans after last season, Gardner’s arm was nothing to write home about. Melky Cabrera’s arm ratings were significantly better. Melky’s ARM rating this year; -3.2.

I haven’t seen Gardner throw enough to know whether the Yankee fans who filled out the Fans Scouting Report were blind or if Gardner is just taking advantage of a bad scouting report on him around the league. So, Yankee fans, help me out here – is Gardner’s ARM rating just a crazy fluke or did he steal Francoeur’s arm over the winter?

What do you think about Gardner’s arm and do you believe that his ARM rating is an accurate representation of his skill? Based on what I’ve seen in 2008 and 2009, it appears as though Gardner’s arm is actually below average, however, his tremendous speed and range allow him to get to balls quickly and get them in quickly. This then prevents some runners from legging out doubles or triples on balls hit to gaps. This isn’t a bad thing, of course, rather it showcases the importance of Gardner’s other defensive tools, like his range and speed. For instance, if Gardner is the full-time starter in CF come 2010, I think teams will factor his speed into their baserunning decisions and therefore treat him like a Nick Markakis or a Hunter Pence when choosing whether or not to stretch out singles. It will be as though he has an elite arm because of his speed. Thus his arm strength may be illusory—a false product of his wheels—but as long as he gets to balls quickly and gets them in quickly (and accurately), he’ll be considered a threat to those who are rounding the bases.

Further, while Cameron notes that Gardner’s ARM rating could, in fact, be a fluke due to a small sample size, he does note that Gardner’s defensive game outside of his ARM rating—his range, in particular—as well as his ability to swipe a bag is still good enough to warrant a regular spot in Joe Girardi’s lineup.

If Gardner really does have one of the best throwing arms in baseball, then there’s really no way that New York can justify keeping him out of the starting line-up on a regular basis. He’s already one of the best base stealers in the game (30 for 33), and his +10.6 range runs 600 innings as a major league center fielder suggest he might be an elite defensive player even without the crazy throwing. If the Yankees can really expect +5 to +10 runs per year from Gardner’s arm, in addition to above average range, and crazy good base stealing efficiency, then he’s worth an everyday line-up spot even with his .698 OPS in the majors.

In fact, when you look at the total body of work that Gardner has put together since showing up in New York, he’s racked up +3.3 wins above replacement in 342 plate appearances. Even with heavy regression, Gardner looks to be good enough to play everyday.

Melky, who is Gardner’s competition in CF, has had a few big hits this season but that doesn’t mean he has been a good hitter, overall. In fact, he hasn’t really hit well since May. And, while he’s not a very strong offensive player, his defensive prowess is often overrated and inaccurate. On the other hand, Brett Gardner’s defense alone makes him a better option in CF, right?