From Chico Harlan (Washington Post):
So, are the Nats really interested in that pair of potentially available New York Yankees, Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher? Nothing is serious on this front yet, sources are telling me. Yes, the two teams have had some discussions. And Swisher in particular fits the profile of what the Nats want. (He’s a switch hitter; he has some pop; he’s 28.) Folks on the Yanks side, though, believe they can get more for Swisher — if even they want to trade him — than what Washington is willing to, or even able to, offer.
For the time being, especially as Washington tries to tries to get leverage with its free agent targets, it’s in the team’s interest to send those free agents a message: i.e., ‘We have other options if you don’t come here. We are not desperate to have you.’ In other words, having the Swisher-Nady rumors around helps Nats… even if Swisher and/or Nady is a longshot to ever help the team himself.
That said, if Washington eventually makes a hard run at either, expect it to be Swisher. Nady is a righty and a free agent next year. He’s a Scott Boras client — essentially, a one-year rental. Swisher has a more favorable contract — he’s locked up through at least 2011 — and more versatility, with the ability to play in the outfield and at first base. Of course, for the same reasons that Swisher is more desirable, he is also less likely to be dealt. New York might just end up hanging on to Swisher after all
Here’s a thought. The Nationals won’t be able to compete until around 2012 and that’s if all goes well for them in terms of player development, signings and so on and so forth. In that regard, would Swisher really even help them? I don’t think so, maybe not until the final year of his contract (2012 if they enact the option). In that regard, it doesn’t make sense. In fact, I don’t think Swisher or Nady make sense for the team unless they have completely given up on Nick Johnson at first. Even then, Swisher’s best position is in the OF and Nady, as Harlan notes, isn’t as attractive an option due to his impending free agency.
If I’m Brian Cashman, a smart and supposedly savvy GM, here’s what I would do because I think the Nationals have something that could be very useful to the Yankees. In RF, they have Austin Kearns (I’ve made a case for him before). Kearns lost his 2008 to a series of injuries (elbow debris, foot fracture) but he’s a very talented player both defensively and offensively (the offensive stuff has stalled in Wash.). He’s owed $8 million in 2009 and $10 million in 2010 ($1 million buyout). Those numbers are scary in the current market but there are some discussions about moving Kearns. Now, playing the part of Brian Cashman, I would actually offer to take on Kearns’ contract and I’d offer a marginal group of players in return for his services (assuming he’s healthy). Here, you’re buying-low like with Nick Swisher. This benefits the Nationals because they free up money and maybe even OF space to make a run at Adam Dunn, someone they’ve been very interested in this off-season or, they’ll go after O-Dog with that money.
The Yankees now have Nady, Swisher, Kearns and Damon (along with Gardner and Melky) and have added some $8 million or so to their payroll. Now this is actual OF depth. At this point, the Yankees can move Nady for a 4-5 starter (the Giants, maybe?) or move him for a solid bullpen arm to pitch the 8th inning (maybe the trading partner can pay some of his contract). By moving Nady after acquiring Kearns, the Yankees still have depth and have filled another pressing need in their rotation. In addition, Grabbing Kearns (an under 30 player) is a smart move because Kearns can play RF and is an excellent fielder. Last year, his UZR there for the Nat’s was 12.9 and that’s pretty damn good when you consider that he played with a stress fracture in his foot and was running on his heels. By improving the offense on the right side via a Nady-Kearns switch the Yankee OF can afford to let Nick Swisher play CF, assuming that Damon plays LF as well as he did last year (8.4 UZR) and assuming that Swisher is, at worst, slightly below average (that’s been the case in the past).
Of course, Kearns’ offense was horrid in ‘08, but that can be attributed to an injury. Kearns has the ability to be a consistent 25 HR player and his $10 million salary in 2010 could be a bargain if he produces the way he did in 2006. If Kearns hits inline with his CHONE projection for 2009, he would deliver a .252/.350/.413 line with 17 HR. That’s not as nice as Nady’s CHONE projection (.273/.327/.456 with 19 HR), but Kearns’ defense opens the door for Swisher in CF and Damon in LF. Offensively it would be significantly better than any Nady, Damon, Gardner/Melky or Swisher, Damon, Gardner/Melky combination. I’d expect an increase in Kearns’ slugging too, when healthy.
Just a thought, albeit a complex one…
(Props to MLBTR).
