Will Bruney be the bridge?
January 7, 2009, 9:51 pm
Based on last year’s numbers, Brian Bruney, the walk-happy wonder, would seem like the best option in the 8th. He posted a superb ERA of 1.83 in 34.1 IP. He walked 16 and struck out 33. But, using my new best friend, it appears as though those numbers are likely to regress in 2009.
Analyzing his 2008 numbers, we see Bruney’s FIP was actually 3.45 (think of it, numerically, as an ERA with defense and other factors outside of the pitcher’s control, eliminated). Basically, Bruney’s Mariano-like ERA should have been closer to that number. For instance, Bruney’s career ERA is 4.34 and his career FIP is 4.59. Basically, despite a poor defensive team, Bruney’s numbers were helped a bit by luck, defense, etc. This is just one element of Bruney’s numbers that foretells a significant regression in 2009.
His BABIP forecasts a similar future.
Bruney’s BABIP (BA on balls put in play) in 2008 was .200. His career BABIP is .290 (in ‘07 it was .277). Most pitchers, I believe, feature a BABIP closer to .300. Even Mariano Rivera’s BABIP in 2008 was higher than Bruney’s (.232 with a .277 career). Again, we see here that Bruney has been sleeping with Lady Luck (not Lady Gaga). It’s always been apparent though, since he walks so many people. Expect his 2009 BABIP to be a lot higher which would then mean that his ERA and WHIP will also be higher.
Bill James’ ‘09 projections for Bruney are in congruence with this theory:
4.50 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 52 IP
Yup, looks like a sensible regression/projection to me. James’ projections for Edwar and Jose Veras are markedly better, however I don’t necessarily trust those projections just yet. In the end, I think we’ll see a battle to be the bridge in 2009. Edwar, Veras, Bruney (he’ll lose, despite his arm) and Mark Melancon could make it very interesting.
You maike no mention of Phil coke, who pitched very well down the stretch. This kid is the chip we need, and no one talks about him. I’d marry him if it were legal. Or if I were gay…
Haha. I like Phil Coke a lot, actually. He told me, in Seattle, that I was the first guy to ever recognize him before a game, which was a cool moment. Anyway, Phil is set to enter spring training as a starter, so I don’t think he’ll be in the mix here. But, if he does a poor job as a starter, maybe the Yankees will reconsider his BP role, trade Marte, and slot him in as a LOOGY (at least).