Save Swisher and trade… Damon?
January 7, 2009, 1:45 amFrom Ken Rosenthal (FOX Sports):
Nick Swisher might not be a Yankee for long. The signing of free agent Mark Teixeira eliminated any chance of Swisher playing first base, and the team’s outfield surplus almost certainly will lead to a trade.
Both Swisher and Xavier Nady are drawing significant interest, according to major-league sources. The Yankees are not in a rush to trade either; their only desire is to make the best possible deal.
The versatility of both players is appealing; Nady plays both outfield corners and first base, while Swisher plays all three outfield positions and first.
Nady, 30, is a free agent after next season. Swisher, 28, is signed through 2011 with a club option for ‘12. Either would be more affordable to the Giants than Ramirez. Swisher also would fit for the Braves and Pirates.
Wow, where do I begin? OK, let’s start with CF. Based upon this report by Ken Rosenthal, it seems as though Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner will be playing CF in 2009. That makes sense, right? That is, by and large, why the Yankees are looking to trade either Nady or Swisher (especially). Defense is being taken into account and Johnny Damon’s UZR in CF for 2008 was -5.6. He wasn’t very good, defensively, last season (in CF), which forces the Yankees to go with Gardner or Melky. Now, Melky was essentially average in CF in 2008, although he has never posted a positive UZR, in that position while with the team. That brings us to our boy, Brett Gardner. Gardner’s CF UZR was the best of the three (5.1), and although his time in the OF was limited, he is recognized as an excellent defensive fielder, so this should be expected.
In the end, Gardner appears to be the best option for CF, at least defensively. If the Yankees are serious about playing Melky or Gardner, I do believe that Gardner’s speed and defensive ability in CF will give him an edge over Melky. Well, what about offense, you might ask? If you look at their projected offensive numbers for 2009, you’ll see that, according to Bill James, Melky will deliver an OPS of .731 and Gardner will provide an OPS of .722 (albeit in 42 games). That’s not necessarily a significant difference between the two but you have to like James’ OBP number for Gardner (.367) when compared to Melky’s (.337). Gardner, in this regard, seems like the better player for center in 2009 as he’ll provide both defense and some offense (some is definitely emphasized, because he’ll have very little power). Melky’s biggest attribute is his (slight) lead in the power department (and his arm).
OK, with Gardner in CF and Damon, Nady and Swisher left to fill out the corner OF positions, who would be better in LF and RF? According, again, to UZR, Johnny Damon would be very capable in LF (5.8 in 2007, 8.4 in 2008). He’s basically the best corner defender when you evaluate them. However, Nick Swisher is no slouch and his UZR outside of CF (meaning in LF and RF) has always been decent and, occasionally, very good. In ‘05 and ‘07 in Oakland (Swisher played CF a lot in 2008), Swisher’s RF UZR was 7.6 and 8.7 (he had a -0.8 UZR in 2008, but that was only 18 games worth of data). In addition, his LF UZR has never dipped into the negative realm. Basically, Swisher in RF or LF is workable. Xavier Nady, on the other hand, is a different story. Based on his UZR numbers with the Yankees and Pirates, Nady will be below average or he’ll be slightly better than average, which is also fine. However, if you’re looking for the best defensive OF, it seems likely that Damon (LF), Gardner (CF) and Swisher (RF) would be the best bet.
But, of course, life is not that simple. Using Bill James’ 2009 projections, how does offense factor into this? Would Damon, Gardner and Swisher be the best offensive OF? Well, no, it wouldn’t be, is the short answer. We already know about Gardner’s limp bat, but according to James, Damon is likely to regress next year, which makes sense given his fairly high BABIP last year (and his age). James sees him posting a .774 OPS with 14 HR, meanwhile, Swisher would be the best offensive producer in the OF given his extremely low BABIP last year (a rebound is in order). James sees him hitting 23 HR and posting an OPS above .800 (.810). That’s great, in fact. So, with a regressing Damon in LF and Gardner’s weak bat in CF, Swisher is the saving grace.
However, what about Nady? James sees Nady hitting 23 HR and, like Swisher, he’ll have an .810 OPS. That’s a significant upgrade when you compare his offense to Damon or Gardner (it’s similar to Swisher’s output). So while the solid defensive OF of Swisher, Gardner and Damon would be nice, it is not optimal from an offensive standpoint. Why not mix and match a bit and gain a very strong combination of the two? Gardner is the best in CF and no one can match his defense there, but if you have Swisher and Nady in the corner OF positions, then maybe you can make up for his lack of offense while sacrificing some defense. Damon’s defense in LF is significantly better but is it enough to hold down the corner, offensively? To be honest, I don’t think so. With Swisher and Nady at the corners, you have capable defense but you’ll also have 60-HR potential between the two and better offensive numbers, all-around, when compared to any other combination that includes Damon.
Of course, Damon’s main offensive contributions come from his position at the top of the batting order (leadoff). He’s a good leadoff hitter and was great last year, yet he is definitely headed for a regression. Again, his BABIP in ‘08 (.331) was higher than his career norm (.310) and Damon is going to be 35 to start next season. He’s not getting younger. So, I’ll be bold and ask, why not trade Damon instead of Swisher or Nady? If the Yankees truly think that Brett Gardner can showcase enough offense to be an everyday player next year, his skill set would seemingly translate to the leadoff role. Why not move JD now and keep Swisher and Nady? An OF of Nady, Swisher and Gardner could definitely prove itself as more than capable offensively and would be fine defensively. Again, why not?
(Sorry for the novel…)
Trading Damon means one of two things in the leadoff spot, both of which are bad – either Jeter leads off and someone must takeover the 2 spot or Gardner leads off and kills the team with his weak offense.
Also Damon has FAR less trade value due to his larger salary and partial NTC.
And what happens when they trade one of Damon, Nady, or Swisher and someone gets injured or underperforms? Then all of a sudden they go from a surplus of good OFers to having Melky AND Gardner both starting.
Only reason to trade anyone of the OFers is if they get absolutely blown away with a trade offer, otherwise keep them all and wait for injuries or performance to dictate playing time.
^If I were them, I’d actually think about playing Damon, Nady and Swisher in the OF. Damon in LF, Nady in RF and Swisher in CF. That’s the best configuration from an offensive standpoint (and, it’s probably best defensively, in terms of these 3).
How about the fact that Damon was a major recruiter for our two new stud pitchers? Can we really expect the Yankee front office, who routinely sign checks from their hearts, to flip Damon after all the work he did as a voice of the Yankees this year?
@Yank Crank
I could not agree more, we’ll probably see Swish or Nady shipped out.
Who is our utility man if Swisher goes out though? He can play more positions than Nady. Swisher is also (slightly)younger…
trading swisher would be the worst possible move. The kid is a great player who has plate discipline, lots of pop, hits for a decent average and plays a better than servicable outfield. Oh yea, the kid is club controlled for years.
Moving Damon IS the best bet, but no one will take him. But Nady, packaged with pitching could get a few future needs met. IE a highly rated catching propsect
Yank Crank, I doubt that the recruitment angle would prevent the Yankees from moving him. If it’s good for the team’s longevity, then I think they’ll consider it. Also, when it comes to signing checks with their heart, we’ve only seen that play out with guys like Mo and Jorge.
If the Yankees end up needing a utility player, a guy like Eric Hinske could be a solid addition.
Charihar, you’re probably right, that isn’t a reason to not move somebody. However, I don’t see Damon as the wise move. First, as we all know, Damon has a no trade clause and will most likely want some kind of monetary compensation for him to waive it. He’ll already be making $13 million for 1 year, as a Boras client, so whomever trades for Damon will need the Yanks to not only contribute some salary relief and also, take a lesser package because they’ll know all they get is one year of Damon who won’t sign with them again. Do we really want to pay for Damon to play for another team? Or can we get one more year out of him, which will still be productive, then offer him arbitration and get a draft pick for him if he declines? Or worst case, just have another year of Johnny?
Also, the Yanks believe they can get some productivity from Gardner, but they don’t “know” that. We can’t just deal one oft he best leadoff hitters in baseball and just assume or hope Gardner can hit at the top of the lineup and fill in for him. This is a guy we almost buried in the depth charts by trading for Mike Cameron and now you want him to fill in at the top for Johnny Damon? I don’t think so, way too risky.
Nady has the best value. Consider this…Matsui and Damon have no trade clauses, Garnder and Melky have no trade value, Swish was acquired for scrap pieces so why would we assume to get anymore than scrap pieces if we deal him? Nady, however, is coming off a career year and we’d be selling high. That’s the right choice. (Sorry for my novel)
Hey YC. I also agree that Nady has the best trade value as I have been an advocate for trading him for a while now (although, at this point, you could probably sign Bobby Abreu and get similar production for the same price on a 1-year deal). Keeping Damon, of course, has its benefits (as you noted, as well).
I wrote the Damon piece because we’ve basically heard nothing on that front, so I figured we could make a legitimate argument for trading Damon and keeping Nady and Swish, especially if the Yankees are looking to trade either one because of the presence of Gardner or Melky. Actually, from an offensive standpoint, an OF of Nady and Swisher would be optimal although the defense would suffer (albeit slightly).
Ok, i’m following you now Charihar. Thanks for posting it, it sparked some pretty good conversation.
Thanks YC. I do wonder about an OF that contains Damon, Gardner (or Melky) and Nady, though. It could be the worst offensive OF in the AL East (vs. Drew, Bay, JE; vs. Crawford, Upton, Gross/X; vs. Scott, Markakis, Jones; vs. Lind, Rios, Wells).
[...] “he recruited players” concept is absurd. I spoke with Yank Crank about this in the “Trade Damon” thread and he certainly agreed that if it makes sense for the team, then anyone is trade-worthy (no [...]
Cannot agree that Damon should be the one to go over Nady. Yes, we can project a better OPS from Nady, but it is more slugging percentage heavy. Damon has better on base skills, which on average leads to overall better offense for the team. Nady’s career OBP is .335, which is right at league average, and is also approximately what Bill James, Marcel, and Chone and projecting for him. Damon’s Career OBP is .354, in line with what is projected for this season.
A new stat designed to measure overall offensive value is wOBA. It puts a bit more emphasis on OBP than straight OPS stats do. Damon’s career wOBA is .349, and his projected wOBA this season is about .345. Nady’s career wOBA is .342, and his projected this season is about .348. So the offensive gap between Nady and Damon is not very large.
To this, you can add that Damon fits the role of a lead off hitter, as well as does a better job of wearing out a pitcher, as he sees 4.1 pitches per plate appearance to Nady’s 3.65. Damon is also the more valuable baserunner, as he’s averaged 27 steals over the last three years to Nady’s three.
Add in Damon’s obvious defensive value, and it seems that Damon has to be more valuable to the Yankees. In purely statistical terms, Fangraphs valued Damon at 4 wins above replacement, and worth 18.1 millions dollars of production in 2008. Nady was valued at 3.7 wins above replacement, and 16.8 million dollars of produced value.
As another example, Baseball Prospectus valued Damon in 2008 as 6.4 wins above replacement player, to Nady’s 6.0 WARP.
Lastly, I have to take issue with the projections having a larger regression for Damon than Nady. True, Damon is five years older, but Nady just jumped off the map all of a sudden in his 30 year old season. His production in the rest of his career doesn’t even come close to replicating what he did in 2008, so it’s perfectly fair to assume that he will regress significantly in 2009. Damon on the other hand, has been a very steady producer over the years. Aside from a poor start to 2007, he has been exactly what the Yankees were looking for offensively.
The only legitimate reason to trade Damon instead of Nady, would be to save on salary. If the goal is to drop some salary so that they can make another move to improve the team, then they definitely should. But Johnny Damon is still a superior player for the time being.
^great rebuttal rory. i’ve been thinking about using wOBA more, too. i do, however, agree with damon’s regression because he simply had an unreal year in terms of offense. nady’s year was inline with what he usually does (hits everything in the 1st half, then dies out in the 2nd) except this time he stayed healthy.
“Again, why not?” As several commentators have pointed out, because Damon is untradeable. Most believe Nady will be the one to go as he is percieved to have far more value to other teams. there’s a reason the White Sox traded Swisher for nothing.
Frankly, the Yankees best move would be to simply release both Matsui and Damon and go sign Adam Dunn. they desperately need to get younger, especially now that Texiera will be at first base for the next 8 years.
If you assume, as I do, that Posada will be a full-time DH for the final three years of his contract, then the value of both Damon and Matsui to the Yankees decline precipitously. They will definitely not be signed next year, there’s nowhere to play them. Posada and Tex will have all the easy defensive spots locked up until 2012. And in 2012 Jeter will be 38, so unless you want to see him sign elsewhere in 2012, he’s probably not going to be able to play 160 games at SS.
Frankly I believe the Red Sox hoodwinked Cashman into signing Texiera. Yes, he’s a great player. But locking up first base for the next 8 years really puts a drag on the rest of an aging roster. What if Jeter and/or Arod decline significantly defensively over the next few years?
I suppose at that point you could just cut Posada, too. Cashman has made a terrible mess of the Yankee roster. it’s time to clean house.
To the commentator who suggested the Yankess simply keep all the extra outfielders in case of injury: you can’t. They don’t all fit on the 25-man roster. Somebody’s got to go, and if the Yankees want to get better, it needs to be at least one of Damon or Matsui. Both would be ideal. In my opinion.
Who knows? Maybe you could get a team like the Mets to pay part of their 2009 salaries in a salary dump. Torre might convince the Dodgers to take a flier on Matsui or Damon.
What’s $26 million, anyway? The Yankees spend money to improve their team. Cutting these two dead weights would certainly do that. Dunn and Tex in the middle of that lineup would be like Ruth and Gherig.