Sox close to signing Baldelli and… John Smoltz

Nick Cafardo has the news (via MLBTR). Mark Bowman (MLB) confirms that the Smoltz deal will likely happen by tomorrow. Smoltz would be great for the Red Sox. I could picture him in a Boston uniform, too (which is sad).

He won’t be ready until late May (early June).

Will Bruney be the bridge?

Based on last year’s numbers, Brian Bruney, the walk-happy wonder, would seem like the best option in the 8th. He posted a superb ERA of 1.83 in 34.1 IP. He walked 16 and struck out 33. But, using my new best friend, it appears as though those numbers are likely to regress in 2009.

Analyzing his 2008 numbers, we see Bruney’s FIP was actually 3.45 (think of it, numerically, as an ERA with defense and other factors outside of the pitcher’s control, eliminated). Basically, Bruney’s Mariano-like ERA should have been closer to that number. For instance, Bruney’s career ERA is 4.34 and his career FIP is 4.59. Basically, despite a poor defensive team, Bruney’s numbers were helped a bit by luck, defense, etc. This is just one element of Bruney’s numbers that foretells a significant regression in 2009.

His BABIP forecasts a similar future.

Bruney’s BABIP (BA on balls put in play) in 2008 was .200. His career BABIP is .290 (in ‘07 it was .277). Most pitchers, I believe, feature a BABIP closer to .300. Even Mariano Rivera’s BABIP in 2008 was higher than Bruney’s (.232 with a .277 career). Again, we see here that Bruney has been sleeping with Lady Luck (not Lady Gaga). It’s always been apparent though, since he walks so many people. Expect his 2009 BABIP to be a lot higher which would then mean that his ERA and WHIP will also be higher.

Bill James’ ‘09 projections for Bruney are in congruence with this theory:

4.50 ERA, 1.56 WHIP,  52 IP

Yup, looks like a sensible regression/projection to me. James’ projections for Edwar and Jose Veras are markedly better, however I don’t necessarily trust those projections just yet. In the end, I think we’ll see a battle to be the bridge in 2009. Edwar, Veras, Bruney (he’ll lose, despite his arm) and Mark Melancon could make it very interesting.

“Power Lunch” with Randy Levine

Darrell Rovell (CNBC’s Sports Biz) sat down with the Yankees’ Randy Levine today and discussed some of economic controversies linked to the new Stadium. I encourage you to check it out since it’s not laced with too much financial jargon (but there may be a few misleading claims in there…).

The city’s smart move

From the NY Times:

After intense criticism, the Bloomberg administration has given up a perk it worked fervently to secure: a free luxury suite at the new Yankee Stadium.

The city will relinquish use of the 12-seat box in exchange for whatever revenue the Yankees generate by selling the seats, minus the cost of marketing them. Although neither the city nor the Yankees have publicly disclosed the market value of the suite, similar suites at the new stadium are being sold for as much as $600,000 a year.

Nice call, Bloomy. You have to enjoy the internet’s innate ability to foster transparency. This entire story was based on a few supposedly private emails between city officials and other parties. Of course, the blogosphere did its part in stoking the firestorm’s flames.

Save Swisher and trade… Damon?

From Ken Rosenthal (FOX Sports):

Nick Swisher might not be a Yankee for long. The signing of free agent Mark Teixeira eliminated any chance of Swisher playing first base, and the team’s outfield surplus almost certainly will lead to a trade.

Both Swisher and Xavier Nady are drawing significant interest, according to major-league sources. The Yankees are not in a rush to trade either; their only desire is to make the best possible deal.

The versatility of both players is appealing; Nady plays both outfield corners and first base, while Swisher plays all three outfield positions and first.

Nady, 30, is a free agent after next season. Swisher, 28, is signed through 2011 with a club option for ‘12. Either would be more affordable to the Giants than Ramirez. Swisher also would fit for the Braves and Pirates.

Wow, where do I begin? OK, let’s start with CF. Based upon this report by Ken Rosenthal, it seems as though Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner will be playing CF in 2009. That makes sense, right? That is, by and large, why the Yankees are looking to trade either Nady or Swisher (especially). Defense is being taken into account and Johnny Damon’s UZR in CF for 2008 was -5.6. He wasn’t very good, defensively, last season (in CF), which forces the Yankees to go with Gardner or Melky. Now, Melky was essentially average in CF in 2008, although he has never posted a positive UZR, in that position while with the team. That brings us to our boy, Brett Gardner. Gardner’s CF UZR was the best of the three (5.1), and although his time in the OF was limited, he is recognized as an excellent defensive fielder, so this should be expected.

In the end, Gardner appears to be the best option for CF, at least defensively. If the Yankees are serious about playing Melky or Gardner, I do believe that Gardner’s speed and defensive ability in CF will give him an edge over Melky. Well, what about offense, you might ask? If you look at their projected offensive numbers for 2009, you’ll see that, according to Bill James, Melky will deliver an OPS of .731 and Gardner will provide an OPS of .722 (albeit in 42 games). That’s not necessarily a significant difference between the two but you have to like James’ OBP number for Gardner (.367) when compared to Melky’s (.337). Gardner, in this regard, seems like the better player for center in 2009 as he’ll provide both defense and some offense (some is definitely emphasized, because he’ll have very little power). Melky’s biggest attribute is his (slight) lead in the power department (and his arm).

OK, with Gardner in CF and Damon, Nady and Swisher left to fill out the corner OF positions, who would be better in LF and RF? According, again, to UZR, Johnny Damon would be very capable in LF (5.8 in 2007, 8.4 in 2008). He’s basically the best corner defender when you evaluate them. However, Nick Swisher is no slouch and his UZR outside of CF (meaning in LF and RF) has always been decent and, occasionally, very good. In ‘05 and ‘07 in Oakland (Swisher played CF a lot in 2008), Swisher’s RF UZR was 7.6 and 8.7 (he had a -0.8 UZR in 2008, but that was only 18 games worth of data). In addition, his LF UZR has never dipped into the negative realm. Basically, Swisher in RF or LF is workable. Xavier Nady, on the other hand, is a different story. Based on his UZR numbers with the Yankees and Pirates, Nady will be below average or he’ll be slightly better than average, which is also fine. However, if you’re looking for the best defensive OF, it seems likely that Damon (LF), Gardner (CF) and Swisher (RF) would be the best bet.

But, of course, life is not that simple. Using Bill James’ 2009 projections, how does offense factor into this? Would Damon, Gardner and Swisher be the best offensive OF? Well, no, it wouldn’t be, is the short answer. We already know about Gardner’s limp bat, but according to James, Damon is likely to regress next year, which makes sense given his fairly high BABIP last year (and his age). James sees him posting a .774 OPS with 14 HR, meanwhile, Swisher would be the best offensive producer in the OF given his extremely low BABIP last year (a rebound is in order). James sees him hitting 23 HR and posting an OPS above .800 (.810). That’s great, in fact. So, with a regressing Damon in LF and Gardner’s weak bat in CF, Swisher is the saving grace.

However, what about Nady? James sees Nady hitting 23 HR and, like Swisher, he’ll have an .810 OPS. That’s a significant upgrade when you compare his offense to Damon or Gardner (it’s similar to Swisher’s output). So while the solid defensive OF of Swisher, Gardner and Damon would be nice, it is not optimal from an offensive standpoint. Why not mix and match a bit and gain a very strong combination of the two? Gardner is the best in CF and no one can match his defense there, but if you have Swisher and Nady in the corner OF positions, then maybe you can make up for his lack of offense while sacrificing some defense. Damon’s defense in LF is significantly better but is it enough to hold down the corner, offensively? To be honest, I don’t think so. With Swisher and Nady at the corners, you have capable defense but you’ll also have 60-HR potential between the two and better offensive numbers, all-around, when compared to any other combination that includes Damon.

Of course, Damon’s main offensive contributions come from his position at the top of the batting order (leadoff). He’s a good leadoff hitter and was great last year, yet he is definitely headed for a regression. Again, his BABIP in ‘08 (.331) was higher than his career norm (.310) and Damon is going to be 35 to start next season. He’s not getting younger. So, I’ll be bold and ask, why not trade Damon instead of Swisher or Nady? If the Yankees truly think that Brett Gardner can showcase enough offense to be an everyday player next year, his skill set would seemingly translate to the leadoff role. Why not move JD now and keep Swisher and Nady? An OF of Nady, Swisher and Gardner could definitely prove itself as more than capable offensively and would be fine defensively. Again, why not?

(Sorry for the novel…)