Joel Sherman has a mind numbing read out on Phil Hughes, where he questions GM Brian Cashman in his decision to keep Phil Hughes and not move him for Johan Santana. This “we should have traded Hughes for Johan Santana” meme was bound to start up again after Hughes’ consecutive bad outings in the Arizona Fall League (which have followed 2 stellar outings). I don’t care much for Sherman’s analysis or his line of retrospective questioning, however, in his text, he does include an interesting scouting report from a scout who witnessed Hughes’ recent Rising Stars debacle:
“His velocity was fine. He threw some at 93-94 (mph), but mostly he was in the low 90s, but the problem was that they were straight. He gave up two bombs and even the outs were mostly hard hit. He couldn’t command his fastball to the corners at all. Only about half his curves were good and only about one in four were in the strike zone. He is working to add that changeup (to use against lefties), threw three and all were up and out of the zone.
“I think the problem is that his elbow is too low so he is not commanding because he is not throwing downhill. His command stinks because his motion stinks. For example, his curve has good rotation and break, but I think because of that delivery it breaks early and so hitters pick it up.”
The scout here is telling us what we already know. Phil Hughes has a lot of problems controlling his motion (delivery), and those problems ultimately create greater problems related to his health (injuries) and his pitching effectiveness. I have written about Hughes’ mechanical issues throughout the year, and even wondered if we should be worried about him back in March. Whenever Hughes runs into an injury or a poor outing, it’s likely the result of poor mechanics or a deviation from the norm (“reaching back” on a pitch). Let’s look at a timeline that specifically illustrates this issue:
1. Injury: Hughes injures his hamstring in 2007 while facing the Texas Rangers — Reason: Claims to have overextended himself on a pitch to Mark Teixeira.
2. Problem: Upon his return to the Yankees, in 2007 (after the hamstring injury), Hughes’ velocity is considerably lower than it originally was, earlier in the year — Reason: Claims that his “mechanics were out of wack” which caused the dip in velocity on his fastball.
3. Problem: In 2008, Hughes was generally ineffective — Reason: There are multiple reasons one could look at to explain Hughes’ 2008. First, during the spring, Hughes stated that he was “overthrowing and overstriding” during some of his outings (an obvious mechanical issue). This hampered his fastball command and teams hammered him in response. This leads to the next reason (4).
4. Injury: In 2008, Hughes injures his ribcage (stress fracture) — Reason: One has to believe that the “overstriding” and the “overthrowing” ultimately caused the injury (which was never fully explained). When a pitcher deviates from his normal delivery, injuries typically ensue.
5. Problem: After injuring his ribcage, Hughes is initially ineffective in AAA (rehab) — Reason: Nardi Contreras notes that Hughes was suffering from poor mechanics.
6. Problem: In the Arizona Fall League, Hughes has been clobbered by the opposition after two quality starts — Reason: As stated by the scout in Sherman’s article, mechanical problems continue to plague Hughes, into the winter (which, of course, could lead to another injury).
Clearly, Hughes’ struggles are intimately connected to his flawed delivery. If he can learn how to repeat his motion (properly) and straighten out his mechanics, then, he will be successful. He also has to learn that he doesn’t have to overthrow or “reach back” when pitching, and that he should simply trust his plus stuff (easier said than done, sometimes). If Hughes cannot fix this overarching problem, then he will never be as effective as he should be, and will always be a walking, talking, injury risk (ala Ben Sheets, or even A.J. Burnett). While Hughes has the raw talent to succeed with the Yankees, it looks like he’ll be one of the more frustrating young pitchers to follow as he attempts to map out his career.
Now, ending on a positive note, Sherman’s highly critical scouting report should not be viewed as a damning conclusion in regards to Phil Hughes, his talent, or his future (nor should this analysis of his mechanics). The scout is commenting on one particular game (RS showcase) and is not speaking in generalities. Therefore, this is definitely a future for Hughes, however, it will be up to him to figure out how that future will pan out.
