Probably Not

The Yankees will shave off about $70 million from their current payroll once players like Jason Giambi, Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina file for free agency. With that money, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, pitching, hitting, whatever it is that they need to address, they can do that, as their finances afford them that ability. However, according to Buster Olney, the Yankees are looking to slash their 2009 payroll from $210 to $180 million. I can honestly say that I don’t think that will actually happen.

If Olney is correct, that would mean that of the $70 million spared, only about $40 million of it will be used for free agents this year. I don’t understand how that is practical, however. If the Yankees pursue CC Sabathia, he will likely get $20-22 million a year. That’s half of the money spent on free agents, right there. Now, if the Yankees bring back Andy Pettitte ($9-10 million) and decide to solidify their bullpen by enacting Damaso Marte’s option (for $6 million), that’s another $16 million. Combined, the Yankees will spend around $38 million on these players alone (max), leaving them with only $2 million to spend on other needs.

Seriously, will this work? What about another pitcher? What about first base (Cashman said he wanted a real 1B)? The Yankees have an assortment of problem areas that must be addressed. If you really think that the Yankees will slash their payroll after an embarrassing 2009 and when they’re entering a new ballpark, then you haven’t been paying attention. Honestly, the Yankees are going to spend the $70 million that they’ll have, and if they don’t, they’ll regret it. The one clearcut advantage that they currently have over the Rays, the Sox, and others, is that they have money. They’d be foolish not to take advantage of that resource.

Sorry Bobby

Bobby Abreu clearly wants to return to the Yankees. Abreu has been a solid force on the team, quietly collecting 100 RBI this season and putting together quite the portfolio in his limited time in pinstripes. If he was willing to take on a 1-year deal, then maybe he would return. However, it’s fairly evident that he won’t accept that, and why should he? That’s not fair to expect that of him. He can get a 3-year deal on the free agent market, whether it’s from the Mets or the Braves, he’ll get a multiyear deal from someone.

Some may think it’s crazy to let him go. He hit well with RISP, true, but Bobby is also 34 and while his power numbers were up this year (funny how that happens in a contract year), his OBP continues to decline. If the Yankees were to lock Abreu up to a 3 or 4-year deal, his stock could plummet within a year or 2. On top of that, he was awful when trying to swipe a bag (22 attempts, 11 CS) and actually finished 3rd in the league in the caught stealing category. A slower Bobby Abreu with a declining eye, isn’t necessarily the type of player you want. Throw in his shoddy defense, and it makes sense for the Yankees to move on (or, if they’re going to sign a bad defender, at least sign a better hitter).

The Yankees’ 3-hole is a good place to be, as Derek Jeter’s presence before you and Alex Rodriguez’s bat behind you, certainly helps your production. Now, imagine the production that could be gained from that spot if you hit a Mark Teixeira there. Obviously, Abreu benefited from that spot, yet what about Jeter and A-Rod? Sure, A-Rod and Jeter benefited from Bobby’s presence, as well, but think how much better it would be if the Yankees subbed in a tremendous power threat and an on-base machine that hasn’t even reached his prime.

Cano Won’t Go

Joel Sherman believes that Robinson Cano won’t be traded. Read more, here…

The Union & CC

Ken Davidoff brings up an interesting point in regards to CC Sabathia and the contract offers he will likely rake in as a free agent. The Players Association (union) will likely encourage Sabathia to agree to the best financial deal he is offered as this would open the economic gateway for future players and, specifically, future pitchers. One would presume that the Yankees will offer the best deal, so, this analysis by Davidoff is certainly pertinent to the outcome of the situation.

The union attempts to secure the most lucrative deals for its top-tier players and frowns upon those who take lesser deals (Evan Longoria comes to mind), for reasons pertaining to comfort, etc., which would seemingly undermine player (and the union’s) power. Therefore, if CC thinks about taking on a lesser contract in order to stay on the west coast, the union could nudge him in the other direction.

Closing Time Has Come And Gone

You know that closing ceremony that I’ve written about? The one that will supposedly be held on November 9th as the Yankees attempt to milk Yankee Stadium’s final moments, one last time? Well, it looks like the touted ceremony has been canceled. This is probably for the best, as it would have been difficult for the team to top the final game festivities that took place on September 21st.

So It Begins…

In my last post I wrote about the 2009 rotation (and lineup) for the Yankees, stating that they would look to dominate their AL East opponents by signing the best of the best, no matter how much money it will ultimately cost them. Jon Heyman, in his latest seems to echo that sentiment:

From Heyman:

The Yankees are said to want to sign two out of three starting pitchers they’re coveting — CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe. Sabathia is, of course, their No. 1 target. But Yankees players seem to love the idea of signing Burnett, a pitcher who has dominated them.

The Yankees are going all in. They know that the Red Sox and Rays have better rotations then they do, and they won’t be able to simply out-hit others, anymore. Of course that won’t stop them from upgrading their offense, however, pitching will become the central focus for the club as they continue into the offseason. Things are different now, and pitching is once again king.

The 2010 Yankees…

Based on free agent availability after the 2009 season (so, next winter), here’s what I think the Yankee lineup will look like, or, I guess I should say, what I think it SHOULD look like, come opening day in 2010. Of course, I took into account the many moves that might occur during the current offseason.

Austin Jackson CF
Derek Jeter SS
Matt Holliday LF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Manny Ramirez DH
Mark Teixeira 1B
Jorge Posada C
Xavier Nady RF
Robinson Cano 2B

CC Sabathia LHP
Chien-Ming Wang RHP
A.J. Burnett RHP
John Lackey RHP
Joba Chamberlain RHP

I didn’t bother with the bullpen, as it is ultimately such a fluid organism and could change in an assortment of ways, although I would assume Mark Melancon will be there (I actually think Melancon will be the setup man as early as next year). In terms of the players included in this list, there aren’t too many surprises. I’ll outline my thinking process as if I was the GM (but with tremendous brevity, with no mention of arbitration, compensation, etc.):

First, for 2009:

Sign CC Sabathia
Sign Mark Teixeira
Sign Manny Ramirez
Sign A.J. Burnett

All 4 of these players will likely gain Type A status once the season is over and their individual production levels are ranked by ESB. I’ve been unsure of the MLB rules regarding how many Type A players a team may sign (there can be limits), yet I believe that the signings are contingent upon the number of free agents available in a given year (the more players that file for FA, the more Type A players you can sign). The following website seems to relay that information.

Now, these 4 players are expensive powerhouses on the free agent market. The reason I think that the Yankees will make a concerted effort to sign all of them, is that they are all quality players and the Yankees are lacking in homegrown talent. While Cashman likes to talk about his young players, the Yankees simply don’t have many position players in their prospect pipeline (and, out of the small group that the Yankees do have, Jackson is the closest one to being ready) and the young pitchers simply aren’t ready yet. With the Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays and even the Orioles making significant gains over the past year, the Yankees will have to be at the forefront of the free agent player pool.

This will allow for the following 2009 team:

Johnny Damon CF
Derek Jeter SS
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Manny Ramirez RF/DH
Jorge Posada C
Hideki Matsui DH/OF
Xavier Nady LF
Robinson Cano 2B

CC Sabathia LHP
Chien-Ming Wang RHP
A.J. Burnett RHP
Andy Pettitte LHP
Joba Chamberlain RHP

The point is to overwhelm the competition–a tough AL East division–in terms of offense and pitching (the two main aspects of the game), and if this were the 2009 lineup, it certainly would do just that. Now, after the ‘09 season, the Yankees will get a chance to feast on another solid free agent group with even more young players. In that group, we’ll probably see Matt Holliday, John Lackey and Brett Myers, two pitchers that I’m sure the Yankees will be interested in. Holliday will actually start the 2010 season as a 30-year old, Lackey will be 31, and Myers will be 29. I chose Lackey out of the bunch since the Yankees have seen him do well in the AL, although Myers could be a big pickup. In addition, depending of Xavier Nady’s performance, he too could return as he will also be a FA.

Thus, we have come full circle and have this:

Austin Jackson CF (23)
Derek Jeter SS (35)
Matt Holliday LF (30)
Alex Rodriguez 3B (34)
Manny Ramirez DH (38)
Mark Teixeira 1B (30)
Jorge Posada C (38)
Xavier Nady RF (31)
Robinson Cano 2B (27)

CC Sabathia LHP (29)
Chien-Ming Wang RHP (30)
A.J. Burnett RHP (33)
John Lackey RHP (31)
Joba Chamberlain (24)

These are the lineups with ages attached to the players, although some of the ages could be off by a number (it’s late and I’m tired, leave me alone). Clearly, the team has some youth to it (e.g. Holliday, Cano, CC, Teixeira, etc.), but there is also a lot of age, as well. Lackey could always be switched out with Myers if the Yankees want to go with a younger arm (or they can simply stick with Hughes, if he’s ready). Also, Carl Crawford will be very young and very available (instead of Nady).

The reason behind all of this is because I’m bored, for one, but also because of the options that will be available to the Yankees are very viable and sound. Young free agents will cost them a lot, however, they’ll also part with a variety of aging pieces (Abreu, Damon, Matsui, Pettitte). The Yankees simply do not have a loaded farm system that is teeming with position players. Pick up the younger players that become free agents and sign them to multiyear deals. While those guys are on the team, draft more position players and hope that they’ll develop enough to replace the others as they grow old. The task of filtering out the archaic nature of the team will take a long time, and this is merely part of the process.

Hughes Getting His Work In

Phil Hughes had his first start in the Arizona Fall League last night, going 5 strong innings while allowing only 1 hit. He struck out 7 (good) and walked 5 (bad). Yes, the walks are rather discouraging when the line is so solid, overall, however, Hughes hasn’t pitched (in a game situation) since the end of September and admitted that his fastball command was off, slightly (an issue that seems to be a common occurrence for him–he’ll need to reign that in).