Just How “Clutch” Is A-Rod?
September 1, 2008, 4:25 am
In light of Jeff Passan’s new column (Yahoo Sports) and A-Rod’s trials and tribulations with RISP, it seems like a legitimate question to ask (or should I be asking how “unclutch” he is, I don’t know). Here’s what Passan has to say regarding A-Rod’s “clutchness” on the year.
Never has it been as bad for Rodriguez as this season. Numbers back up the cries of Yankees fans, whose complaints about Rodriguez look, on the surface, like those of a scorned lover, what with his .306 batting average, 29 home runs, 81 RBIs and .968 OPS. They say he never hits when it counts – home run No. 29, a solo shot Sunday when the Yankees were down 4-0, is a prime example – and a deeper look, with a metric that analyzes clutch hitting, shows they are onto something.
Win Probability Added (WPA), as tracked by fangraphs.com, assigns a different value to every situation. For example, a run-scoring single to tie a game in the seventh inning is worth significantly more than a bases-empty single in the first inning. Over the entire season, it adds up the positives, subtracts the negatives and produces a number that shows how many wins a player contributed to his team – and, ostensibly, an indicator of how well a player fared in clutch situations.
This year, Rodriguez’s WPA ranks 93rd of 158 eligible players.
It gets truly ugly when compared to another metric that takes away the extra credit for coming through in a close game – the Leverage Index, it’s called – and treats every at-bat equally. Rodriguez’s WPA/LI is 18th in baseball.
In other words, the difference between how well Rodriguez produces in regular situations compared to how poorly in high-leverage ones is staggering. The resulting metric, called “Clutch,” ranks A-Rod last in the major leagues this season, 158th out of 158.
You can check out the rest of the article for more information regarding the measurements used. Now, what’s truly sad is that these findings probably don’t even surprise you (how could they?). To all the boo birds, you probably feel vindicated right now and to those who have defended A-Rod by touting his season totals (which, on the surface, are great), you’re probably feeling somewhat betrayed. But hey, this is the harsh reality that Yankee fans have to live with and for those of us who watch the games, we certainly didn’t need Jeff Passan to outline what has already become a dreadful normality. Even when one looks at the most basic situational statistics like AVG and OPS with RISP and then compares them to AVG and OPS with no one on base, one can easily see the point that Passan is trying to make.
So what do you think about A-Rod’s “clutch” factor? Is this a legit measurement of the man’s contributions to the team or do the final numbers speak for themselves? Do Yankee fans have the right to express their frustrations and boo the man when he doesn’t deliver in a tight spot or is that wrong, especially after last season’s MVP achievement? This is interesting stuff…
Afraud
I am glad that the statistic back the opinion that is so easy to form simply by watching him. He is a headcase choke artist who, as long as he is on the team, will always fail us when we need him most. I feel so strongly about this, that I started:
nomorearod.blogspot.com
IMO, If he keeps playing like this toward the end of seasons, I don’t think he’ll last the entire contract. Yankees will milk his stardom especially with the new stadium and as he pursues the home run record but I just don’t see how they can keep someone that makes all this money and doesn’t hit in the clutch (but yeah he’ll hit a home run or two in a blowout game). Yeah, we’ve heard about how he was injured in the beginning and his personal life is not doing good but I’m so tired of hearing all the excuses. He’s not the only one that goes through a few issues from time to time. You can tell he is just thinking to much. And for someone who has all the talent he has and has been playing ball all his life, you would think he wouldn’t have to think so much and it all would come naturally for him.
I don’t know, what do you think? Maybe I’m just talking out my rear end and I’m just too frustrated and not just with him, the entire team, Girardi included. I do like ARod, glad he plays for us but enough is enough.
Oh and I’m so tired of ballplayers playing their @ss off in contract years and when they do get that huge contract, the next season for them is a wash! ex. ARod, Cano, Posado (ok, he got hurt, i’ll take that back). And look at Abreu and Giambi this season, having nice seasons so far and why is that do you think?
I don’t think A-Rod will ever end up outside of NY. He’s a head case, but he’s our head case and he’s here to stay. The problem with A-Rod is that there is just a huge disparity between his numbers with no on on base and his numbers with RISP. It’s an unbelievably large gap and that is where the problem lies. This season, it’s been staggering, as said by Passan. I think A-Rod will bear down and have a better year next year (with RISP), but this year he’ll have a lot of trouble upping those numbers with only a month left.
Also, contract years motivate players. They get in better shape during the offseason when they know there’s another payday on the horizon. Abreu and Giambi are having solid years (Abreu more than Giambi), but even with solid production from Giambi, he’s not going to be back. Abreu could possibly come back, but he’ll have to be on a short leash.
We’ll have to wait 9 years for his next contract so he’ll hit in the clutch again. I was so happy when he was going to walk, thought it was the best thing.
When A-Rod seemed like he wasn’t going to return, I thought, well, how do we fix third base. My only real concern was trying to replace an ounce of his bat (RISP or no RISP). I love Miguel Cabrera and am sad to see him in Detroit (playing first base, of course) and hoped the Yankees would turn to him as a replacement, but they definitely weren’t willing to trade young arms for offense. With that said, I’m still happy we have A-Rod, but I’d like to see some more play like today in Detroit (2 for 3 with 4 RBI with RISP).
I think “clutch” hitting is like all other hitting, it’s irregular and inconsistent. Streaky. Some players are more streaky than others. If you pool a players’ stats over, say, a season, or several, and then compare that to chopped up subsets (like w/RISP, etc.), of course the smaller subsets will vary more from time to time.
In my opinion, the best one can hope for is a player who performs at his personal average to perhaps slightly above w/RISP; why slightly above? Because the pitchers probably pitch more in the strike zone once runners are on, trying to avoid walks. Certainly with bases loaded…anyway, I think in general league BA/SLG, etc., are higher with RISP, so it should go this way with any batter.
Anyway, the referenced article showed that ARod had very “clutch” seasons in 2007 and 2005…so overall, he is probably about average in this regard. Look at Ortiz, the alleged paragon of clutch, and I think you’ll see that over his whole career, he is about average too…meaning at his own average.
I look at ARod’s problem as not one of choking, but simply of being a bit too streaky. I think he gets in his own way, probably thinking too much and letting his ego get in the way. Instead of thinking about the next pitch, he’s thinking about driving in the run, or his career HR total, or whatever. Mental things like this can make you a streaky hitter.
I don’t like the guy; I like under the radar players better. But to be honest, if the Yankees even could unload him, they would be worse off next year. You just can’t make up for all that production.
all good points. I think I was just frustrated like I said. I hope we’re watching ARod at third for many years to come. sorry for my rant.
86 general pretty much sums it up. Rob Neyer has looked at “clutch” hitting extensively in the past and shown it, over careeer periods, to be more or less bunk. This includes such legends as Papi. Lets face it, for every negative thing you can say about ARod this year, you were likely saying the exact opposite last year (where I think his “to tie or take the lead” stats for his Homeruns were astronomical). The simple fact of the matter is Arod is having a subpar (for him) year as he usually does the year after he wins the MVP. Does he have his issues? Sure. Is it sort of funny to see people complaining about someone winning the MVP every other year and only hitting .300 with 30-40HRS and 100+ RBIS (remember he lost a bunch of at bats this year) in his off year? Ayup.
People should be looking a lot closer at Giambi’s production (his .200 makes Arod’s .250 look pretty good) and the inconsistencies of Abreu (who has been great lately), Jeter and Cano. If Jeter, Cano, the 3rd OFer (combo of melky, christian, gardner) subbing in for Matsui and the catcher position (pudge has been awful) were having even average seasons (for them) this would be a much smaller story. Simply put, not counting Arod, you had at least 4 every day player positions performing below to way below expectations (and while giambi has performed well over all, his RISP numbers have been the worst of all). Its entirely possible that the two are related.
I would blame Girardi for keeping Giambi in the 5th slot but I am not sure anyone else really stepped up to earn it..
Hey Drew, yea I agree about last year. Earlier this year I wrote about how clutch he was last year with game-changing scenarios (“tie or take the lead” homers, etc.), so this year is certainly different in comparison. The thing about his post-MVP years, like in 2004 and 2006, you’re right they were considered “down years”, although the numbers were still phenomenal (maybe he gives it his all one year and then tries too hard the next). In 2004, A-Rod had trouble hitting in the “clutch”, but in 2006, although his final numbers weren’t as gaudy as they were in 2005 (an MVP year), A-Rod did his best hitting with RISP, so there are some nuances in the patterns we’re seeing.
Now, the point of Passan’s article is not necessarily to say that A-Rod can’t hit in the clutch this year, although I think it does do that obviously, but it points out the huge disparity between his numbers with no one on base and with RISP. Essentially, as the ducks on the pond increase, A-Rod’s numbers slowly fade (he hits his best with no one on, 2nd best with a man on first, hits worse with RISP, and hits terribly with the bases loaded). Again, this is something that I’ve pointed out is specific to this year since A-Rod normally hits well with RISP (according to his career numbers). For all we know, if A-Rod goes on a monster hitting streak with RISP, that could all change (but then people would be saying, too little, too late). Also, in regards to what 86general said, I agree wholeheartedly. Being streaky, especially in relation to specific situations like hitting with RISP, is probably a product of mental mistakes or miscues (as you said). I think this is the reason people harp on A-Rod’s playoff numbers (he’s puts too much pressure on himself and doesn’t take it one pitch at a time). But, at the same time, you said that isn’t choking, but isn’t that the very definition of choking, where you kind of over analyze a situation until you hamper your output?