Let The Kids Play

Tom Verducci is worried about Ian Kennedy’s arm in 2008 (what a nice man). Verducci featured Kennedy as an “at-risk arm” in his list of young “at-risk arms” for 2008. In fact, Verducci actually stuck Kennedy up at the very top of the list:

1. Ian Kennedy, Yankees, 23 (+61 IP)

Kennedy sailed through three minor league levels and reached the big leagues last year, his first full season in professional baseball. The Yankees allowed him to ring up 165 1/3 innings at age 22, after he threw 101 2/3 innings at USC in 2006 and 2 2/3 innings at Staten Island after signing. Kennedy was shut down late in September and left off the postseason roster because of what was described as mild back soreness.

Kennedy’s path may recall how the Angels pushed Jared Weaver, another college stud, by 56 innings in 2006. Weaver started 2007 on the DL with shoulder soreness and saw his ERA rise by 1.45.

One caveat: Kennedy’s jump is not as alarming as first blush indicates. The Yankees did give him an extra 30 1/3 “unofficial” innings of winter ball in 2006 (see Carmona below); not your high-stress big league innings, but still good incremental training. If you count that work, his jump of 30 2/3 innings barely pushes him into the danger zone.

Earlier in the day, Verducci actually forgot to include an extra 30 1/3 HL innings in his evaluation, and therefore, you have to wonder about his choice to place Kennedy at the very top of his list. However, to his credit he later changed his report and included those extra “unofficial” innings. Clearly, the Yankees haven’t set this kid up on a destructive path (as Verducci would like you to believe), as his workload has been relatively adequate in relation to the the 30 inning increment rule.