For Fantasy Baseball in 2007, ESPN had a pretty sick projection for Morgan Ensberg. The following was said about Ensberg’s abilities and output:
Ensberg was trade bait all offseason but there were no takers. He suffered a serious injury to a shoulder in June, and his offense collapsed. If healthy, expect a power rebound, making him Top 3 3B in NL-only and Top 10 in mixed.
The following are Morgan Ensberg’s projected numbers for 2007 (by ESPN).
These are pretty superficial and are not necessarily the most complex data you can find. The projection of 85 R, 29 HRs, 84 RBI, 3 SB, and a .273 average, is a great projection though, and is obviously based on something. Ensberg’s 2007 numbers were well below these figures, but what happened to his offensive production?
In 2005, Ensberg put up a line of .283/.388/.557 and hit 36 HRs while driving in 101 runs. He pretty much came out of nowhere, and we were all wondering if his success would last. We got our answer shortly after. In 2006, he fell apart. Granted, the shoulder injury was a big problem for him, but he was also hitting .236 into mid-July. In fact, in his last 57 games before he was placed on the DL, Ensberg was hitting .194.
Ensberg’s injury, characterized as a “right shoulder contusion” did not warrant any surgery, and did not feature any structural damage. However, his shoulder injury which first popped up in early June (and held him out of the lineup for a few games), was still serious enough to keep him out of the Astros’ lineup until the end of July (in 2006).
Worried about their stagnant offense, the Astros acquired Aubrey Huff. Ensberg then rejoined the team on the first day of August and hit .202 for the month, but only had one HR in the end. Although he had fewer AB’s in the second half of the season, Ensberg’s power was nonexistant, slugging .369 with 4 HRs, when he had slugged .500 in the season’s first half (with 19 HRs). It seems as though his shoulder injury was truly a problem, and he had never fully healed.
In August, the manager Phil Garner, even stated outwardly that he was worried about Ensberg (after he had returned).
“I am concerned,” Garner said. “He’s just not hitting the ball well consistently. Morgan’s a guy that we’ve seen in the last couple of years who goes to the plate, takes a mighty swing and gets results. To me, it looks like he’s searching for the ball; he’s just not letting it go. He’s swinging not to miss it as opposed to swinging to hit it. We’ve talked about it numerous times, but he’s struggling a little bit.”
In 2007, if healthy, Ensberg had the chance to be productive once more. However, he again fell apart and never gained footing in Houston. He hyperextended his left ankle towards the end of April and from that injury, he lost a lot of playing time to others (notably, Mike Lamb and Mark Loretta). Then the Astros got Ty Wiggington, and traded Ensberg to the Padres (where he promptly hit .224/.308/.483.).
So, what should we expect from Morgan Ensberg? Ensberg had great numbers in the minors, which could mean that his power and OBP were never really flukes or anomolies (career minor league OPS of .870). However, the minors are a far way off and Ensberg is 31 now. He was clearly effected by injuries and the impotent Astros lineup, which desperately tried to get something going with a variety of players.
If healthy and if he’s past his injuries (mentally and physically of course), Ensberg could regain form and be a sleeper for first base. His playing time became erratic in Houston, and if given a fulltime position, he could be something more than a bench player. He’s still relatively young although he’ll be 32 in August. Even if relegated to the bench, he’s a righty that hits well against lefties (career .936 OPS) and could push Shelley Duncan (although Duncan was really good against lefties last year…308/.338/.606).
Ensberg’s situation will ultimately depend on Jason Giambi. If Giambi goes down early on, the Yankees are clearly too afraid to try Damon or Matsui at first (Ensberg’s signing demonstrates that). They could try Duncan at first or Ensberg at first, or even platoon with Wilson Betemit. Shelly Duncan cannot hit against righties (he can’t even get on base against them) so Ensberg could be a regular option for the club.
When you think of it this way, it’s a pretty smart, low-risk signing.