So, sort of a random topic, especially in light of other relevant issues in the baseball world, but I thought with the new season approaching and with all the steroids and Santana talk, a brief preview of my fantasy picks for 2008 and an overview of my 2007, could serve as an interesting (and much needed) break.
2007 was my first year in fantasy ball, and I must say, it was a trial-by-error process in the beginning. I had no idea how it worked, how to interact with others in my league (there were 12 of us) what I was supposed to do, and so on and so forth. But, after the first few weeks and a lot of investigating, I sort of figured it all out.
Here’s some brief info on the league I was in, before I get started on how it all turned out. I was basically in a head-to-head league (each week we battled for points in a variety of offensive and pitching categories), and we utilized every available position in baseball including 2 utility spots and an extra infield and outfield spot as well. We had 4 starting pitcher spots, 2 relief pitcher spots, 3 flat-out pitcher spots, 5 bench spots (to mix up rosters) and 2 DL spots (for injuries). Our points were predicated upon a ton of categories, including R, H, HR, RBI, SB, K, TB, AVG, OBP, SLG, IP, W, L, SV, BB, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, K/BB. We were also capable of picking up players left and right (via trades, waiver pickups, etc.) because there were no restrictions on managerial moves.
So, since I had never done fantasy before (fantasy baseball, that is…) it was a bit difficult figuring it all out. I also missed the draft because I was in Florida on Spring Break (could you blame me?), so I had a bunch of questionable characters on my squad, to say the least. Of course, being a fantasy virgin also added to my worries.
My Initial Roster Accompanied by Initial Thoughts (After the Automated Draft):
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Ryan Howard (Reigning NL MVP, can’t go wrong)
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Mark Teixeira (He’s got to hit 50 home runs this year)
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Jimmy Rollins (A bit older now, poised for a good year)
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Jake Peavy (Great, he’ll rebound after 06)
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Brandon Webb (Reigning Cy-Young Winner, great)
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John Smoltz (Peavy, Webb, and Smoltz?)
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Carlos Guillen (Totally underrated SS, nice pick)
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Richie Sexson (Looks like the computer loves picking 1B)
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Matt Cain (Another great pitcher, could become SF ace in 07)
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Cole Hamels (Similar to Cain in terms of projection, great change)
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Adrian Beltre (Not the best 3B around, but he’ll be enough)
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Ramon Hernandez (Had a solid 06, could get better if healthy)
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Brian Fuentes (Nice, I needed a closer and this guy is nasty)
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Bronson Arroyo (Yuck, should be adequate pitching insurance)
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Willy Taveras (Oh now, the computer is starting to screw me)
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Ray Durham (Solid 2B, although old, should hit enough)
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Ryan Freel (He does have position flexibility, but come on now)
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Pedro Martinez (Injured player, could be used later)
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Chris Duffy (Who? A Pirate?)
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Brad Wilkerson (Oh no…)
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Adam Wainwright (He posted good numbers last year… as a closer)
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Juan Rivera (Another injured player (and an ex-Yankee)?)
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Geoff Jenkins (What??? Why?!?)
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Matt Murton (Lou will not play this kid)
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Sean Casey (Good God…)
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Javy Lopez (Aren’t you retired?)
So, as you can see, the computer actually did a pretty good job picking players. It snatched me some solid infielders, but it did a terrible job picking outfielders. Basically, it chose more and more pitching for me, thus making a lot of those guys expendable. Therefore, I became one of the most trade-happy managers in fantasy history. I was the guy sending you multiple trades and offerring up everyone and everything (which didn’t really work well at first).
In order to reconfigure the team and provide balance, here are some of my key moves that overhauled my flexibility and capabilities in the league:
PRIMARY TRADES/MOVES (*note, some may be slightly inaccurate):
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Peavy, Wainwright and Taveras for Andruw Jones and Nick Swisher
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Traded Ryan Howard for Jim Thome, Joe Crede, Brett Myers
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Flipped Nick Swisher for Hideki Matsui, straight up
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Cole Hamels, Carlos Guillen for Ichiro Suzuki and Bob Wickman
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Geoff Jenkins, Richie Sexson, and Brian Fuentes for Juan Pierre and Swisher
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Quickly flipped Juan Pierre for CC Sabathia
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Moved Brett Myers for Chien Ming Wang
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Traded Joe Crede and Chien Ming Wang for Magglio Ordonez
These were my biggest moves. Some of them sound crazy, but there was a method to my madness. I was able to revamp my OF and add Jones, Ichiro, Matsui, Swisher, Ordonez, while maintaining a strong IF (Tex, Durham, Beltre). Then I picked up Troy Tulowitzki to be my SS, since he was projected to deliver in 07 (and did). Ryan Theriot (of the Cubs) also deliverd some quality offense (for a little while) after losing Guillen.
I also dropped a bunch of guys (Casey, Lopez, Pedro, Rivera), especially after a bunch of injuries hit my team pretty hard (Ramon Hernandez, why did I trust you?). I then picked up some great young guys as the season progress, like Mike Jacobs, Jeremy Hermida (he finally had a solid year), James Loney, Joey Votto, and Adam LaRoche (great second half player), etc.
BIGGEST BUST: Andruw Jones, obviously. His season line was .222/.311/.413. The only person I missed from this trade was Peavy, since he did pitch amazingly well in 07.
STUPIDEST TRADE: John Smoltz for Pat Burrell. Yup, I did it. It was my very first trade and I had no idea what I was doing, simply because I didn’t know how the dynamic works between managers when making trades. Burrell actually went on to have a pretty solid year though (tearing the cover off the ball in the second half), so that helps a bit.
THE BEST MOVES: Flipping Wang and Crede for Magglio Ordonez at the beginning of the season was tremendous. He hit .363/.434/.595 over the season, and had a shot at the MVP award (until A-Rod killed it). Also, Juan Pierre for Sabathia was great. I needed to improve my K/BB and CC is one of the better pitchers in the league with that, so I moved Pierre and acquired the 2007 Cy-Young winner.
SHREWD PICKUPS: Troy Tulowitzki, obviously, was a big move. He could’ve been ROTY if it had not been for Ryan Braun’s amazing numbers. I also picked up Moises Alou after he came off the DL from his injury (hamstring?) and he went on to hit like a machine (a 30-game hitting streak). Another pickup that worked pretty well for me was Bengie Molina. He was a waiver wire outcast and once Ramon Hernandez hit the DL I added him and he hit enough to justify his addition.
ADDING RELIEF: In order to improve my pitching ratios, I had to pick up a bunch of good relievers. So, I opted for Scot Shields, Heath Bell, Kevin Gregg, Joakim Soria, John Broxton, and a couple of others. Closers were hard to find, and other than Wickman I pretty much had no one so I chased the Holds category a lot more. A lot of guys had 3 closers on their teams so I pretty much gave up on it, but I was able to stay competitive by adding Soria, and Gregg who actually converted 32 saves for the Marlins.
OVERALL RECORD: 1st Place. Record: 253-165-22 with a .600 winning percentage.
GUYS THAT I’D BANK ON FOR 2008: There are plenty of guys I’d keep from my 2008 team. It’s not necessarily a loyalty thing, instead it’s a knowing they’ll produce again thing. Someone like Matt Cain who had a pretty horrible record was actually amazing in the second half, so he’d definitely get another look. Teixeira, Swisher, Tulowitzki, Mags, Ichiro, even Beltre, are good enough to pick up in 2008.
Although, every player has their flaws, and you need to work around those. Some people like Beltre don’t have high stats in certain areas (OBP), others don’t hit in the first half (Tex), and the list goes on. Therefore, a lot of fantasy, from what I’ve learned seems to be all about structuring your team so that it is solid all around. For example, guys like Ichiro and Mags made up for the lack in BA from guys like Swisher and Beltre.
2008 SLEEPERS: Jeremy Hermida hit a ton in 07 (even after being on the DL for a while). Joey Votto, James Loney, all hit like machines during their brief stints. Matt Cain will be big. The biggest sleeper could actually be Andruw Jones, since injuries might have hampered him all season. I would expect a substantial rebound next year.
If you’re a big fantasy fan, this is my intro to what I’ve done thus far (I’m still very new to everything, so tips from you guys can help me out). Stick with me this season, I’ll be playing again (probably in the same league) and I’ll keep you updated from time to time on my moves and my picks for 2008.